DCE is responsible for preparing the official Danish projections of greenhouse gases on request from the Danish Energy Agency. The first projection was made for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency in the project ‘Projection models 2010’. In this project a range of sector-related partial models were developed to enable projection of the emissions of SO₂, NO_x, NMVOC and NH₃ 2010 to 2030 (Illerup et al., 2002). Subsequently, the project “Projection of GHG emissions 2005 to 2030" was carried out in order to extend the projection models to include the greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O as well as HFCs, PFCs and SF₆) and project the emissions for these gases to 2030 (Illerup et al., 2007). Further updates have occurred in the projects:

• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2007 to 2025 (Nielsen et al., 2008)
• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2009 to 2030 (Nielsen et al., 2010)
• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2010 to 2030 (Nielsen et al., 2011)
• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2011 to 2035 (Nielsen et al., 2013)
• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2013 to 2035 (Nielsen et al., 2014)
• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2014 to 2025 (Nielsen et al., 2016)
• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2016 to 2035 (Nielsen et al., 2017)
• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2017 to 2040 (Nielsen et al., 2018)
• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2018 to 2040 (Nielsen et al., 2019)
• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2019 to 2040 (Nielsen et al., 2020)
• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions - 2020 to 2040 (Nielsen et al., 2021)

The projection model

This page contains a description of the models, background data and projections of the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) for Denmark. The latest historic year that has formed the basis of the projection is 2019. The emissions are projected to 2040 using a scenario, which includes the estimated effects of policies and measures implemented in Denmark’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (‘frozen policy‘ or ‘with existing measures’ projection) – meaning that the policies and measures are implemented or decided by May 2021. The official Danish energy projection, e.g. the latest official projection from the Danish Energy Agency (DEA), are used to provide activity rates (2020-2040) in the models for those sectors for which these projections are available. The emission factors refer to international guidelines or are country-specific and refer to Danish legislation, Danish research reports or calculations based on emission data from a considerable number of industrial plants in Denmark. The projection models are generally based on the same structure and methodology as the Danish emission inventories in order to ensure consistency.

The main emitting sectors in 2020 are Energy Industries (15 %), Transport (33 %) and Agriculture (27 %). For "Other Sectors" (9 %), the most important sources are fuel combustion in the residential sector. GHG emissions show a decreasing trend in the projection period. The total emissions in 2020 are estimated to be 40.5 million tonnes CO₂ equivalents and 27.8 million tonnes in 2040. From 1990 to 2019 the emissions decreased by 37 %.  For the projection years 2020 to 2040, the emissions are expected to decreased by 31 %. 

Figure 1  Total GHG emissions in CO₂ equivalents. Distribution according to main sectors in 2020 and time series for 1990 to 2040.

Click here to get the documentation report for the greenhouse gas projection (September 2021)

Click here to get detailed data from the greenhouse gas projection (September 2021)